Are green energy sources now more economical than fossil fuels?
By Rick Richardson
Technology This Week
According to a recent study, solar power, also called photovoltaics or PV, is expected to overtake all other power sources globally by the year 2050. The analysis shows that even in the absence of extra climate legislation, the change is likely to happen, yet at least four obstacles might impede solar energy’s growth and guarantee the continued use of fossil fuels.
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“Historical policy to stimulate solar PV has brought down costs. We’re now at the point that a virtuous cycle between cost declines and additional deployment doesn’t require more ambitious policies targeting solar anymore,” says study team member Femke Nijsse, a climate and energy systems researcher at the University of Exeter in the UK. “More ambitious policies for other renewables [are] still needed.”
Solar and wind power costs have drastically decreased in the last 15 years. Scholars have started discussing the possibility of a “tipping point,” at which the cost-only viability of renewable energy sources would surpass that of fossil fuel sources. Still, there was little consensus on when or how this might happen.
Therefore, it has been widely assumed in models of the global energy system that the dominance of fossil fuels will persist. Previous models have routinely underestimated the rate at which solar power will increase in practice.
Instead, Nijsse and her colleagues used three models to examine the global energy system, reflecting the positive feedback loop between declining costs and the growing use of green technologies. Based on current economic and technological data, the models project the adoption of several energy technologies until 2060.
The researchers predict solar power will surpass wind power by 2030 and take the lead in global energy technology by 2050. Their findings are published in the journal Nature Communications.
The results parallel a research study conducted last year, which found that quickly switching to renewable energy sources will be far less expensive than sticking with fossil fuels. According to the latest analysis, it is no longer reasonable to regard fossil fuels’ prolonged dominance as “business as usual.”
The result was unexpected, Nijsse says: “We were seeking to find which policy was required to ‘tip’ this tipping point. We found it had already tipped, assuming a set of four barriers can be overcome or avoided.”
The four barriers to solar’s takeover are unstable power grids, lack of financing for solar in developing countries, supply chain capacity, and political resistance from regions that lose jobs. The researchers suggest policies aimed at removing these obstacles could have a more significant impact on the clean energy transition than initiatives to lower solar prices, like carbon taxes:
- Adding renewable energy sources, power transmission links between regions, batteries and other energy storage devices, and demand management policies can all help policymakers create resilient electric grids that can withstand daily, seasonal and weather-related variations in the amount of solar energy available. If not, the globe might become ensnared in an energy system that uses fossil fuels to cover energy demand peaks.
- New regulations are also required to extend financing for solar installations to underdeveloped nations. Most solar financing now exists in high-income nations, whereas most international development funding allocated to this sector resides in middle-income countries. Low-income nations are excluded, particularly those in Africa. Therefore, it’s uncertain that the developing world will decarbonize based on declining costs alone.
- Certain minerals and metals, such as copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements, are needed for electrification and batteries. Still, the supply chains for these can occasionally be unstable. Policies to maximize material recycling and reuse will also be crucial, as will research into alternatives.
- Last, political resistance from those who profit from fossil fuels and from populations that rely on such industries for jobs could hinder the implementation of solar technology. Some of this opposition may be avoided by ensuring communities dependent on fossil fuels are cared for during the green transition.
Currently, Nijsse and her associates are searching for tipping points in other areas of the global energy system, particularly regarding electric vehicles and home heating. The team’s spokesperson explained that the relationships between sectors and how they affect the first identified barrier, grid stability, need to be investigated in much more detail, asking, “Is it possible to preheat hot water or buildings using excess solar energy? Are EV car batteries suitable for grid storage? Can we build tipping point cascades if that’s the case?”
