Today's Features

21 Hard-Earned Lessons from Tax Season 2026

And What 20 Years of Data Say Comes Next

By CPA Trendlines Research

There is a ritual to tax season. It begins with anticipation dressed as control.

Practitioners tally the risks — the IRS, the law, the clients who will not deliver on time — and tell themselves this year will be different. Then the season starts. And it isn’t.

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The CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer tracks that ritual across waves of surveys from September 2025 through April 2026 with more than 300 respondents.

The data show not a profession in crisis, but a profession under stress. Where pressures no longer arrive one at a time but stack up on each other. Where external shocks have been absorbed, and internal limits have come into view.

Tax season is full of noise, chaos and confusion. But a close look at the Busy Season Barometer from this year – and going back more than 20 years – can cut through the fog for the patterns, trends, insights and, most of all, the tough lessons learned.

Tax season 2026 gives us at least 21 essential takeaways.

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Tax Prep Billing Rates Lift Busy Season 2026

Busy Season 2026 sets up a year of tough decisions about monumental transformations.

Busy Season 2026: Billing rates for tax prep and planning are increasing at a 10.8% year-over-year rate, rushing past the average tax and accounting fee increase of 4.5%.

By CPA Trendlines

Busy Season 2026: Tax professionals struggle to improve systems and metrics, with “much worse” beating “much better” by three to one.

As tax season 2026 comes to a close, new data show that price hikes for tax prep and planning are running at double-digit rates, even as billing rates for most other accounting services are flattening out, according to new CPA Trendlines research in conjunction with the annual Busy Season Barometer.

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Tax practitioners are finishing the season as a divided profession, with fewer than 6% reporting a “much better” year, against almost three times that many reporting a “much worse” year.

Coming out of tax season, many firms are facing major decisions in the coming months driven by new artificial intelligence investments, a fundamental shift in staffing models, and private equity disruptions.

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Red Flag Warning: Accountants Lose Faith in the Economic Outlook

A turn for the worse: Accountants’ outlook on the economy takes a tumble with the end of busy season. (CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer)

Two-thirds now see tough times ahead.

By CPA Trendlines Research

After processing hundreds, if not thousands, of tax returns for wage earners and small business owners, U.S. accountants’ confidence in the nation’s economy is in a state of collapse, according to the latest CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer.

While practitioners entered the winter with relatively stable expectations, the reality of “busy season”—which provides a granular look at the financial health of American businesses—has apparently triggered a sharp reversal.

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With the end of the 2026 filing cycle, roughly two-thirds of CPAs are predicting that national business conditions will worsen over the next 12 to 18 months, a startling increase from the beginning of the cycle, when only half held a negative outlook. Conversely, the number of optimists dwindled to about 18%, down from nearly 30 points from earlier in the year.

“We’re looking at higher costs and too much uncertainty for our small-business clients,” one sole proprietor noted in the survey, shifting his rating to “much worse.”

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Tipping Point: Accountants Scramble for AI Tech

New workflow systems expected to cut labor problems and shore up profit margins.

Coming out of tax season, more than 55% of firms are looking for new artificial intelligence solutions, up 10 points from before the season. The scramble for practice management and workflow solutions has almost doubled. (CPA Trendlines Research)
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By CPA Trendlines Research

The CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer shows accounting firms are already planning changes to their technology and workflows, aiming to address the same pressures that defined this year’s busy season.

The research points to a profession broadly aligned with what needs to change, but much less aligned with how quickly those changes can be put into practice.

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MORE Busy Season | MORE Tech and AI

Firms across the spectrum, whether reporting a better or worse tax season, identify similar priorities: improving efficiency, reducing manual work and making better use of technology.

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Kenji Kuramoto: Basis Moves to Close AI’s Biggest Gap

When accountants and AI agents work side-by-side

“The future of the profession is accountants and agents working together,” Kuramoto says.


By Seth Fineberg
For CPA Trendlines

“Managing partner-in-residence” is not a standard role in accounting, and that was the first point of friction when Kenji Kuramoto was asked to explain his new job at Basis, the accounting AI agent company. What does that actually mean?

The answer goes beyond one hire. It points to a shift now underway in accounting: artificial intelligence is moving out of experimentation and into operations, and firms are not yet prepared for what that requires.

MORE Kenji Kuramoto: Behind Sorren’s Roll-Up: $170 Million, 1,000 Employees, 85 Partners | Kenji Kuramoto: Rules? What Rules? | Getting Real: Accounting Tech Decisions You Need to Make Today
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Basis, at getbasis.ai, says that Kuramoto, founder of cloud pioneer Acuity, joined full-time to help firms transition to AI-enabled operations, working directly with customers and shaping the product. The company made clear this was not a symbolic role. “Kenji isn’t here to advise from the margins,” CEO Matthew Harpe says. “He’s a full-time member of this team… creating the product with us.” Kuramoto is embedded with the company, not observing from the outside.

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 Busy Season 2026: Clients, Pricing, Staffing… CRUNCH

CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer: Modest Gains, Mixed Outlook, Cautious Tech Upgrades Ahead

Top concerns: “The returns aren’t harder—they’re just later.” (CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer)
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By CPA Trendlines Research

The 2026 tax season shows some gradual improvement for certain firms, but most practitioners report conditions that remain largely unchanged from a year ago, according to the latest data from the CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer.

For More Busy Season Trends and Strategies: Join the survey. Get the results.

MORE Tax Season 2026

The good news is: 2026 hasn’t turned into the disaster some were expecting with a new tax law and diminished IRS. The bad news is: 2026 is turning into a relatively routine year — without the advances in workflow or the better margins from higher-value services that some were hoping for.

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How AI Upends CPA Firm Pay Structures: Bloomberg Talks with Piscopo

Big 4 Transparency founder Dominic Piscopo makes featured appearance on Bloomberg.

By CPA Trendlines

Accounting firms are being forced to rebalance compensation structures—shifting pay and incentives away from entry-level staff and toward managers and reviewers—as artificial intelligence reshapes how work gets done, according to Dominic Piscopo, host of Big 4 Transparency on the CPA Trendlines Streaming Network.

MORE Dominic Piscopo and Big 4 Transparency | MORE CPA Trendlines Streaming Network

Piscopo’s full discussion on AI, compensation trends, and the future of accounting talent is available on Bloomberg Tax’s Talking Tax podcast. His ongoing analysis of salary data and workforce trends is featured on the Big 4 Transparency show, streaming on CPA Trendlines.

“Having transparency in those models and being willing to talk about it with people —not just have this very kind of cold process where a number is thrown out—can make all the difference, even if the number is exactly the same,” Piscopo tells Bloomberg Tax reporter Jorja Siemons.

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PE Wars: Top CPA Platforms Battle for Supremacy

After hundreds of deals, the data show a gravitational pull toward a handful of buyers now driving the profession’s future.

CPA Trendlines PE Deal Tracker: Mega-aggregators dominate the money flow as the race tightens between Ascend, Aprio, Crete, Eisner and Ryan.

By CPA Trendlines Research

The frantic pace of deal-making in March has officially transitioned the accounting industry from a “consolidation phase” into a “platform war.”

As the first quarter concludes, the narrative is no longer just about who is buying whom, but about which investment philosophy—and which technology stack—will dominate the next decade.

The conventional narrative about private equity in accounting says capital is flooding in, the profession is democratizing, and every CPA firm in America can access institutional money for the first time. But the cold, hard data tells a different story.

MORE in Private Equity | Alan Whitman Plants a Flag in the Private Equity Landscape | The PE Takeover: Audit Problem? What Audit Problem? | The 7.6x Machine: How Grassroots Firms Are Taking Private Equity for a Ride | Why the Next Big CPA Firms Won’t Look Like CPA Firms

Of the 427 transactions logged in the CPA Trendlines PE-CPA Deal Tracker™ since 2016, more than 200 — nearly half — are concentrated in just 10 platforms. That challenges the notion of a market open to all.

The idea that PE would spread evenly across hundreds of firms, like a broad revolution, is, in the actual deal flow, a rapid gravitational implosion around a handful of mega-aggregators that are vacuuming up firms faster than the rest of the market combined. The acceleration curve alone should unsettle anyone clinging to the idea that this market is still nascent. READ MORE →

What Is Actually Happening Inside PE-Backed Firms

 

And why it changes everything for you.

By Hitendra Patil
Client Accounting Services: The Definitive Success Guide

When independent firm owners think about private equity competition, the mental picture is usually the same: better capitalized, broader service lines, deeper recruiting budgets, more sophisticated technology. That picture is partly accurate, but it is also, by now, missing a significant part of the story.

MORE by Hitendra Patil
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The profession has enough real data on what happens after PE enters an accounting firm to give a more honest account. Accounting Today’s 2025 State of PE in Accounting survey found something that surprised even people who had been skeptical of PE from the start. At some firms, respondents described genuine excitement, stronger financial discipline, and investment in staff development that had not been possible before. At others, the same survey found people using the phrase “dumpster fire” and describing cultures that had shifted from collaborative to metric-driven in ways that felt, to the people inside them, like working for a different firm entirely.
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Bissett Bullet: Know When You’re Beaten … For Now

Today’s Bissett Bullet: “When should a lead be considered dead? Having invested time into a prospect, how do you know when to call it a day?”

By Martin Bissett

I would suggest that if someone has failed to come back to you on three occasions, over a legitimate period of time – lets say a month or more – then that particular lead should be considered dead. You are expensive and your time, past a certain point, is far better spent arranging to meet with somebody who is more keen to work with you.

It doesn’t necessarily mean that you won’t ever convert them but for now, it’s time to file them under proposals you didn’t win and move on.

Today’s To-Do:

Who have you met with recently and subsequently been chasing? How many times have you made contact with no outcome? If it’s more than three, take the above advice. As a precaution, diarize one further follow-up, three or six months hence. If they have been legitimately waylaid, they will still have an interest in working with you.

See more Bissett Bullets here

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Five Ways to Hook Better Clients

Word "CLIENT" caught on a treble hook

Aim for a mix at all revenue levels.

By Sandi Leyva
The Complete Guide to Marketing for Tax & Accounting Firms

Many accountants serve clients with extremely small businesses that gross six figures a year or even less. These clients are prone to being price-sensitive and often struggle with budgets and cash flow. If you’re serving these clients, you’re definitely meeting an important need in the marketplace, but you may also start to question your own prices, or worse, underprice your services.

MORE by Sandi Leyva
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The good news is that, on average, the higher revenues a company earns, the more likely they are to be a higher-quality client for you. Owners with larger companies, on average, are less price-sensitive and less emotional about running their businesses.
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Accounting’s Hidden Talent Risk: The Sandwich Generation | ARC

The 2026 MOVE Project aims to turn caregiving challenges into actionable insights for firms.

 

Sponsored by True Advisor: The Definitive Success Guide for Client Advisory Services by Hitendra Patil |
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The step-by-step operating guide for firms building, pricing, and scaling advisory services that clients value—and pay for.

Accounting ARC
With Liz Mason, Donny Shimamoto, and Byron Patrick
Center for Accounting Transformation

As accounting firms continue to grapple with talent shortages, retention challenges, and evolving workforce expectations, a growing segment of professionals is quietly carrying an additional burden — one that rarely shows up on a balance sheet. 

They are caregivers. 

MORE MOVE: Learn more and register.

MORE Accounting ARC: Built Fast. Sold Faster. Broken Later? The Truth About Accounting Tech | Recognize When You Need to Recharge Before You Burn OutValuing More Than the Balance Sheet | Accounting’s “Untalked-About” FrontierWhy Happiness is Hard-Fought for High Achievers | The Fastest Way to Lose Talent Is “Dick Leadership” | Post-Holiday Fatigue Isn’t a Failure; It’s a Signal | OCR, Research Bots & Meeting Assistants: What Actually Helps NowReturn Season is the New Stress Test | Small Firms May Have the Biggest Advantage in 2026 | Downgraded: What the DOE Said About Accounting | Savage: Using Your License as a MegaphoneBaker: Interpreting Pricing PsychologyDon’t Get Fired by Your Own Automation | What Amazon Doesn’t Tell You | Royalties, Residuals, and Reality Checks | ARC-SLC 

In the latest episode of Accounting ARC, Donny Shimamoto, CPA.CITP, CGMA; Byron Patrick, CPA.CITP; and Liz Mason, CPA, turn their attention to the 2026 Accounting MOVE Project — and the professionals it aims to better understand and support.This year’s emphasis: the “sandwich generation” and others balancing careers with caregiving responsibilities. The topic reflects a broader shift in how the profession defines talent, productivity, and success — and raises questions about whether traditional firm structures are keeping pace with reality.

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