By CPA Trendlines Research
The full tax and accounting industry—which includes accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services—has hit a new record high with 1,163,600 jobs, representing an annualized growth rate of 2%, which is measurably stronger than the year-over-year 1.23% gain, according to new data examined by CPA Trendlines. But a choppy economy and political volatility have accountants and observers alike wondering if the trends can continue in 2026
CPA offices managed to add 1,700 jobs over the past year, keeping the segment on a slow but positive trajectory. Employment at offices of certified public accountants is holding steady at 544,300 positions, matching the month-before figure. The revision from the previous estimate of 544,600 marks a modest 0.06% downgrade. The year-over-year trend improved slightly to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in the prior report.
Economists and policymakers alike have been parsing the latest report with extra caution. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that headline job creation figures may be overstated by as much as 60,000 positions per month, based on internal Fed staff research — a revelation that, if confirmed, would fundamentally reshape interpretations of the labor market’s strength.
At the national level, the delayed data dump — postponed for weeks by a 43-day federal government shutdown — showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls expanded by just 64,000, following a deep 105,000 job loss in the previous month, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.6%, its highest mark since 2021.
The latest gain slightly exceeded expectations, but its modesty underscores the slowing momentum in the labor market, with analysts noting that private-sector gains were offset by weak government and other sectoral results. These national trends provide crucial context for the accounting sector data reported below. The modest pace in the tax and accounting industry parallels the slow growth economy-wide, reflecting an increasingly cautious labor market.
Gender and Workforce Composition Trends
A deeper look reveals uneven progress. Women are show slight gains, rising to 741,200 from a revised October total of 739,400, a 2.9% annualized rate, accelerating from the 0.71% year-over-year growth.
Men’s employment, calculated by subtracting women’s counts from total employment, edged slightly lower by 0.05%, a shift in composition even as male employment remains higher year over year. Production and nonsupervisory employees — the backbone of daily accounting work — grew to 884,000 from 881,000 in the month before, a 4.1% annualized rate, and more than twice as fast as the 1.73% year-to-year increase.
Conversely, supervisory employment dipped slightly, indicating that managerial or oversight positions are not expanding as fast as frontline roles. Together, these patterns suggest that while headcounts are rising slowly, the internal structure of staffing is shifting toward frontline roles rather than supervisory positions.
Wages and Hours: Signs of Plateauing
Wage metrics continue to show slowing acceleration. Average hourly earnings across the industry rose modestly to $45.81 month-to-month from $45.69 — a 3.1% annualized rate, measurably slower than the 5.07% year-to-year rise. The earnings data mirror the annual pace of October and indicate a potential plateau after robust wage growth earlier in the year.
Nonsupervisory average hourly earnings held at $36.30, unchanged from October, but still up 2.85% on the year, softer than previously reported. The average weekly hours for production and nonsupervisory staff increased to 34.6, representing a 3.5% annualized rate. Yet, the year-to-year comparison was essentially flat — suggesting that gains in workload, rather than new hiring, may be driving the modest increase in hours.
Across the industry, aggregated weekly hours rose to 20.5 million at a 4.5% annualized rate, significantly higher than the 1.54% year-over-year growth, indicating a broad uptick in utilization. Payrolls for all employees rose to $1.1 billion a week, up 3.7% annualized and 4.62% year-over-year, both consistent with moderate expansion but slower than earlier in 2025.
The wage and hours trends reinforce a picture of stability with decelerating momentum, aligning with national wage data showing slower gains in other sectors amid rising unemployment.
Subsector Snapshot: Divergent Performance
Within the industry’s subsectors, payroll services exhibit the strongest employment growth in the accounting ecosystem, surging 8.3% year-over-year, with average hourly wages up 4.2% — in line with heightened demand for outsourced payroll functions.
Bookkeeping services saw wages rise 3.6% year-over-year, while employment remained flat — possibly reflecting automation trends that are dampening hiring.
Entering Busy Season 2026, tax preparation services experienced 3% job growth on the year and 3.2% wage growth, reflecting seasonal hiring patterns and ongoing compliance demand.
CPA offices reported 2.85% employment growth, adding about 9,400 jobs from a year earlier. However, female employment in CPA offices declined, weighing on workforce diversity metrics.
Meanwhile, CPA wage levels reached a near-historic high of $47.44, surging at an 8.4% annualized rate and a 6.7% rise year-over-year, reflecting continued premium pay for credentialed professionals.
Broader U.S. Labor Market Signals and Fed Skepticism
Nationally, the jobs report shows a cooling labor market, characterized by higher unemployment, weaker job gains, and downward revisions to prior months. The unemployment rate’s rise to 4.6% indicates slack in the job market.
Against this backdrop, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that headline U.S. employment figures may be overstated by as much as 60,000 jobs per month is adding a new element of uncertainty. Powell’s critique centers on known issues with statistical modeling — particularly the “birth-death” adjustment used by the BLS to estimate jobs tied to new and closing businesses. If Powell’s estimate holds, the economy’s true underlying job creation could be meaningfully lower — or even negative — compared with official figures. Powell’s remarks come at a time when the Federal Reserve is keenly focused on inflation, labor market slack and monetary policy decisions for 2026.
Outlook for Accounting Firms as the Economy Softens
For the accounting profession, the data point to a cautious but resilient labor environment. Firms are holding onto staff at near-record employment levels but are not aggressively expanding headcount. Wage pressures have eased from earlier peaks, easing cost concerns but dampening potential income gains for frontline workers.
The sector’s hiring success contrasts somewhat with reported national softness, yet it remains vulnerable to broader economic forces — especially if national job creation is overestimated. Gender imbalances and structural shifts into stronger staff growth suggest that firms may be prioritizing operational capacity over managerial expansion.
As firms prepare for the 2026 tax season and navigate fiscal uncertainty, the employment landscape is entering a more mature phase of growth, one less defined by rapid post-pandemic rebounds and more by selective, sector-specific demand. With the Federal Reserve weighing concerns about data accuracy and the national economy showing signs of slack, accounting employers may face a labor market that is stabilized but slower and more nuanced than the headline numbers initially suggest.