Red Flag Warning: Accountants Lose Faith in the Economic Outlook
Two-thirds now see tough times ahead.
By CPA Trendlines Research
After processing hundreds, if not thousands, of tax returns for wage earners and small business owners, U.S. accountants’ confidence in the nation’s economy is in a state of collapse, according to the latest CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer.
While practitioners entered the winter with relatively stable expectations, the reality of “busy season”—which provides a granular look at the financial health of American businesses—has apparently triggered a sharp reversal.
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With the end of the 2026 filing cycle, roughly two-thirds of CPAs are predicting that national business conditions will worsen over the next 12 to 18 months, a startling increase from the beginning of the cycle, when only half held a negative outlook. Conversely, the number of optimists dwindled to about 18%, down from nearly 30 points from earlier in the year.
“We’re looking at higher costs and too much uncertainty for our small-business clients,” one sole proprietor noted in the survey, shifting his rating to “much worse.”
