2026 outlook

The IRS in 2026: Quiet Backlogs, Harder Fixes, and Late Guidance

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Less capacity, more obligation.

By CPA Trendlines Research

Identity theft is becoming one of the biggest time drains for tax professionals this filing season, and the IRS may be less equipped than ever to handle it.

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According to the IRS Advisory Council—the body representing tax professionals—identity-theft refund cases now take nearly two years to resolve, as staffing cuts and system limits slow IRS response.

But identity theft is only one of a long list of problems that can only get worse this year. Tax professionals are bracing for prolonged client disputes and frustrating follow-ups with an understaffed, ill-equipped IRS.

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Busy Season 2026: Firms Look to Pricing for Growth

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Revenues and client rosters outpace profit gains as firms battle cost pressures.

On the front lines (clockwise from left): Clockwise from left: Hall, Langworthy, Lenz, Kwiecinski, Dickerson

By CPA Trendlines

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CPA firms heading into the 2026 tax season expect revenue gains driven primarily by higher prices, not by adding clients, even as a majority anticipate another heavy extension season.

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MORE TAX, PRICING, and THE 2026 OUTLOOK

According to the CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer, about 6 in 10 firms expect total revenue to increase this year, while roughly one-third expect revenue to hold steady. Profit expectations trail revenue slightly, a pattern that points to continued cost pressure even as clients and would-be clients clamor for more, and more high-end, services

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Return Season is the New Stress Test | ARC

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E-commerce growth forces firms to rethink accruals, margins, and sustainability.

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Accounting ARC
With Liz Mason, Byron Patrick, and Donny Shimamoto
Center for Accounting Transformation

Build a 7-figure firm in just 4 hours a week!

Holiday shopping has never been easier. With a few taps on a smartphone, consumers can buy gifts from bed, track deliveries in real time, and return unwanted items with minimal friction. But behind that convenience lies a complicated accounting reality—one that came into sharp focus during a recent episode of Accounting ARC.

MORE Accounting ARC: Small Firms May Have the Biggest Advantage in 2026 | Downgraded: What the DOE Said About Accounting | Savage: Using Your License as a Megaphone |  Baker: Interpreting Pricing Psychology | Don’t Get Fired by Your Own Automation | What Amazon Doesn’t Tell You | Royalties, Residuals, and Reality Checks | ARC-SLC | Free Speech Is a Right; Respect Is a Responsibility | Cash Bags, Casinos & Audits: How First Jobs Shape Us | Gen Z Redefines Careers | Bootleggers, Baptitsts & CPAs: Rethinking Licensure

Hosts Donny Shimamoto, CPA.CITP, CGMA; Byron Patrick, CPA.CITP; and Liz Mason, CPA, examine the financial, operational, and environmental consequences of e-commerce returns, using the holiday season as a lens to explore broader shifts in consumer behavior and business sustainability.

Industry research shows that nearly 25% of e-commerce purchases are returned after the holidays, compared with less than 9% of in-store retail purchases. For accounting teams, that disparity introduces volatility into revenue recognition, inventory valuation, and profitability forecasting—often at the worst possible time of year.

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Outlook 2026: Can Tax & Accounting Payrolls Keep Surging to New Highs?

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Record High: Tax and accounting industry hits 1,163,600 jobs, an annualized growth rate of 2%, and a new all-time high.

By CPA Trendlines Research

The full tax and accounting industry—which includes accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services—has hit a new record high with 1,163,600 jobs, representing an annualized growth rate of 2%, which is measurably stronger than the year-over-year 1.23% gain, according to new data examined by CPA Trendlines. But a choppy economy and political volatility have accountants and observers alike wondering if the trends can continue in 2026

MORE Staffing and Pay Trends

CPA offices managed to add 1,700 jobs over the past year, keeping the segment on a slow but positive trajectory. Employment at offices of certified public accountants is holding steady at 544,300 positions, matching the month-before figure. The revision from the previous estimate of 544,600 marks a modest 0.06% downgrade. The year-over-year trend improved slightly to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in the prior report. READ MORE →