OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS

Red Flag Warning: Accountants Lose Faith in the Economic Outlook

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A turn for the worse: Accountants’ outlook on the economy takes a tumble with the end of busy season. (CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer)

Two-thirds now see tough times ahead.

By CPA Trendlines Research

After processing hundreds, if not thousands, of tax returns for wage earners and small business owners, U.S. accountants’ confidence in the nation’s economy is in a state of collapse, according to the latest CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer.

While practitioners entered the winter with relatively stable expectations, the reality of “busy season”—which provides a granular look at the financial health of American businesses—has apparently triggered a sharp reversal.

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With the end of the 2026 filing cycle, roughly two-thirds of CPAs are predicting that national business conditions will worsen over the next 12 to 18 months, a startling increase from the beginning of the cycle, when only half held a negative outlook. Conversely, the number of optimists dwindled to about 18%, down from nearly 30 points from earlier in the year.

“We’re looking at higher costs and too much uncertainty for our small-business clients,” one sole proprietor noted in the survey, shifting his rating to “much worse.”

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Tipping Point: Accountants Scramble for AI Tech

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New workflow systems expected to cut labor problems and shore up profit margins.

Coming out of tax season, more than 55% of firms are looking for new artificial intelligence solutions, up 10 points from before the season. The scramble for practice management and workflow solutions has almost doubled. (CPA Trendlines Research)

By CPA Trendlines Research

The CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer shows accounting firms are already planning changes to their technology and workflows, aiming to address the same pressures that defined this year’s busy season.

The research points to a profession broadly aligned with what needs to change, but much less aligned with how quickly those changes can be put into practice.


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Firms across the spectrum, whether reporting a better or worse tax season, identify similar priorities: improving efficiency, reducing manual work and making better use of technology.

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 Busy Season 2026: Clients, Pricing, Staffing… CRUNCH

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CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer: Modest Gains, Mixed Outlook, Cautious Tech Upgrades Ahead

Top concerns: “The returns aren’t harder—they’re just later.” (CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer)
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By CPA Trendlines Research

The 2026 tax season shows some gradual improvement for certain firms, but most practitioners report conditions that remain largely unchanged from a year ago, according to the latest data from the CPA Trendlines Busy Season Barometer.

For More Busy Season Trends and Strategies: Join the survey. Get the results.

MORE Tax Season 2026

The good news is: 2026 hasn’t turned into the disaster some were expecting with a new tax law and diminished IRS. The bad news is: 2026 is turning into a relatively routine year — without the advances in workflow or the better margins from higher-value services that some were hoping for.

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Inside Tax Season’s Hidden Shift: Same Work, Fewer People, Higher Cost

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And that’s the good news.

Your mileage may vary: The tax and accounting workforce is churning out almost as many returns. But with rising labor costs. Is that a margin squeeze or the firm of the future? (Index = pro-filed tax returns, annualized payrolls, and headcounts)

By CPA Trendlines

New CPA Trendlines Research suggests that the much vaunted promises of AI-enabled efficiencies are still just that – promises.

MORE Tax Season

So far this year, firms are producing even fewer tax returns than at the same time last year, while salaries are increasing.

The problem gets worrisome when you notice that headcounts are flat to down. Or, are these the signs of a new paradigm?

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Geof Brown: The Three Things You Can’t Ignore | Gear Up for Growth

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Illinois CPA Society CEO lays out the three big challenges.

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Gear Up for Growth
With Jean Caragher
For CPA Trendlines

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“What got you to this point is not going to be what gets your firm to its next major milestone,” says Geoffrey Brown, president and CEO of the Illinois CPA Society.

MORE Jean Caragher here | Get her best-selling handbook, The 90-Day Marketing Plan for CPA Firms, here | MORE Gear Up for Growth | MORE CPA Trendlines Streaming Network here

“Be flexible. Be nimble,” he tells Jean Caragher in this episode of Gear Up for Growth. “Surround yourself with the right people and take advantage of opportunities that help you lead into the future.”  READ MORE →